黑龙江森工林区接替产业发展评价

运用熵权灰色关联分析法对黑龙江省森工林区所辖4个林业管理局2012—2017年养殖业、绿色食品等5个接替产业综合发展水平进行评价,并运用耦合协调度模型测算接替产业的均衡水平。结果表明:不同林业管理局的5个接替产业均呈波动发展状态;伊春林业管理局的优势接替产业是养殖业、绿色食品、北药开发和工业,牡丹江林业管理局的优势接替产业是绿色食品,合江林业管理局的优势接替产业是服务业,松花江林业管理局没有显著的优势接替产业;接替产业的综合发展水平偏低导致其均衡水平不高,总体上由初步协调向中度协调发展。因此,各林业管理局应继续发展具有优势的接替产业,同时扶持相对薄弱的接替产业,并开发与引进新的接替产业。     

New development: China renews reform of central–local fiscal relations and provides for basic national public services

China’s reform on central–local fiscal reform has slowed down in recent years. The appointment of a new finance minister experienced in local government affairs is expected to renew the reform affirmed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress in late 2017. China has unprecedentedly identified a comprehensive list of 81 national basic public services as entitlements. Eighteen of them are subject to national and local standards, and co-financed by central and local governments. A new cost-sharing method for 10 of these services classifies sub-national jurisdictions into five tiers, in which the central government’s share declines from 80% to 10%. These measures, effective in 2019, aim at creating a ‘harmonious and moderately prosperous society’.     

Challenges in the Portuguese textile and clothing industry: a fight for survival

The Portuguese textile and clothing industry thrived after 1960, when Portugal joined the European Free Trade Association, and it has been an important industry in Portugal in terms of value added, employment, and exports. Nevertheless, the industry has experienced significant challenges with the final integration of the apparel and textile industry into GATT on 1 January 2005, as well as the admission of relatively low-wage Bulgaria and Romania into the European Union in 2007. This paper describes recent trends in the industry between 1995 and 2016, including a substantial decrease in output after 2005 and recovery in recent years. In addition, a translog cost function is used to examine the existence of economies of scale, the relationships among inputs, and the effects of the 2005 GATT entry on the industry’s costs. The findings include strong evidence of economies of scale, consistent with the many small and mid-sized enterprises in the Portuguese textile and clothing industry. The results are also consistent with capital and labour being complementary inputs, while other input pairs are substitutes. The entry into GATT may have had a negative impact on cost, though the evidence for that effect is weak.     

森林食品产业减贫的作用机理及效应分析

首先,介绍森林食品产业减贫的作用机理,主要包括解决资源落后与发展滞后的矛盾;促进贫困地区收入增长;注重多方交流互动。其次,将森林食品产业的减贫效应分为社会减贫效应、经济减贫效应、生态减贫效应这3个部分。最后,提出加强基础设施建设与品牌宣传;增加产业联动效应;持续带动地区增收等建议,以期为政府相关部门制定政策提供决策依据。     

India's Economic Reforms: Achievements and Next Steps

This paper reviews the impact of India's reforms since 1991 on the performance of the Indian economy. It shows that the reforms definitely achieved a significant acceleration in growth and they also succeeded in reducing poverty. However, they have been less successful in generating good quality jobs. There was progress in providing better access to education, health services ,and clean drinking water and sanitation, but less than was hoped. The area where performance has been most disappointing is environmental sustainability. The paper concludes by identifying some of the critical policy challenges in the years ahead.     

Taxation and the Environment–Health–Poverty Trap: A Policy Experiment Perspective

Under pressures related to economic growth and environmental protection, China is facing an increasingly severe “environment–health–poverty” trap risk. Fuel taxation is generally considered an effective policy to counter such a risk. Since 2009 China has raised the fuel tax rate many times to enhance tax reform. However, the effects of this policy remain unknown. Therefore, it is vitally important to estimate the impacts of China's current fuel taxation policy on environment, public health and the national economy. As the first attempt in existing literature on China, this paper builds a general equilibrium framework with the feedback effect of public health on economy. We find that that the fuel tax policy benefits the adjustment of the economic structure and improves human health; however, it is detrimental to economic growth, public welfare and price stability. In this sense, it plays a limited role in reducing the trap risk and might not be sustainable in the long term.     

The development trinity: How regional integration impacts growth,inequality and poverty

Developing countries today have become more active participants in regional trade agreements. This raises questions about how the benefits of integration are distributed, and the extent to which lower‐income countries are able to capture development gains. Historically, such impacts have been difficult to identify with precision. This paper seeks to address this gap by empirically analysing the impact of regional integration on development, particularly the effects on growth and welfare. Using both bilateral and regional integration measures, we show that the ability to capture gains from integration varies across developing country regional groups, with developing Asia benefiting on par with developed countries. The findings in the paper indicate that trade and trade policy play an important role in reducing inequality and poverty in developing countries. It also shows that regionalism can function as a channel to make multilateralism a more adept way of addressing national challenges.     

高端乡村旅游产业与生态环保基础设施协同发展研究——以天津蓟州区为例

在经济新常态下积极推动发展高端乡村旅游产业已经成为我国建设美丽乡村的重要着力点,与此同时"反生态"问题的不断显现已成为阻碍我国乡村旅游经济实现可持续发展的掣肘,因此,高端乡村旅游产业的发展模式向生态化转型势在必行。以天津市蓟州区乡村旅游景区的环保基础设施为研究对象,从环境情况、设施配备和从业人员3个方面确定了20个影响因素,通过向游客发放问卷进行满意度调查,从游客感知角度的基础上采用IPA模型分析游客对景区环保基础设施的重要性和满意度。结果表明,准则层及指标层感知均值都为游后感知实绩(满意度)<游前期望(重要性),在此基础上提出用冲突协同理论来指导蓟州区高端乡村旅游产业发展中的环境管理工作,实现高端乡村旅游产业与环保基础设施的协同发展,也能为今后的相关研究奠定基础。     

Information asymmetry in the innovation adoption decision of tourism and hospitality SMEs in emerging markets: A mixed-method analysis

Investment decisions, particularly innovation adoption decisions, can sustain long-term viability of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). However, information asymmetry could limit the ability of SME management to make informed innovation adoption decisions. Even though information asymmetry is a multidimensional construct, prior literature has only focused on financial information asymmetry in such decisions. Therefore, the current study fills the research gap by conducting two separate studies: one analyzes World Bank Group data from 1250 observations in 11 emerging markets, and the other interviews eight SME owners and managers. The findings of the mixed-method studies suggest that financial, business regulation, and court information asymmetry decrease the likelihood of SMEs' product innovation adoption. The study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of information asymmetry in SMEs’ decision-making rooted in agency theory. Moreover, its methodological contribution lies in measuring information asymmetry with micro-level data.     

基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。